Archive for January, 2012

BEIJING, Jan 16 (Reuters) – Chinese banks must conduct regular stress tests and improve analysis to detect risks that may not be reflected in the falling ratio of bad loans and better loss provisioning, the country’s top banking regulator wrote in an article published on Monday.

China Banking Regulatory Commission chairman Shang Fulin said banks must ask borrowers to increase collateral if underlying asset values fall and that lenders must take advantage of fast growth and high profits now to make more aggressive loss provisions.

‘Chinese banks’ capital adequacy ratio and provisions have increased substantially in the past few years and the non-performing loans ratio has fallen significantly,’ Shang, who took charge of the banking sector in November, wrote in Caijing magazine.

‘But we must know there are still some hidden risks behind all these good numbers,’ he warned.

Investors’ worries about under-reporting of bad loans, especially those arising from 10.7 trillion yuan ($1.7 trillion)of local government debts, have weighed down Chinese bank shares.

Shang also said that banks must improve their capital management, a lesson from the fast credit expansion in 2009 and massive fundraising from the stock and bond market in the subsequent years.

‘Such forced capital replenishment after asset expansion is clearly not sustainable,’ Shang warned.

This year, the central bank has sent out its routine warning early in the year against a lending spree, but sources told Reuters last week that China aimed for 8 trillion yuan in new local-currency loans to protect growth, up from 7.5 trillion yuan in 2011.

They will first meet demand from projects already under construction, small businesses and the agricultural sector, Shang said. ($1 = 6.3066 Chinese yuan)

(Reporting by Langi Chiang and Nick Edwards; Editing by Ken Wills) Keywords: CHINA BANKS/RISK

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By Manuel Mogato

MANILA, Jan 16 (Reuters) – The Philippine Senate

begins the impeachment of the top judge on Monday in a case that

could drag on for months and distract President Benigno Aquino

from his promised focus on lifting the economy, creating jobs

and rooting out corruption.

Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato Corona has vowed to fight

to clear his name in a trial which has its roots in the bitter

rivalry between Aquino and his predecessor, Gloria Macapagal

Arroyo, who is under hospital arrest awaiting trial herself on

charges of election fraud and corruption.

Corona, appointed by Arroyo, is charged with betraying

public trust and violating the constitution. He is accused of

bias in favour of Arroyo as she faced charges late last year

and, among other things, of failing to disclose his assets and

liabilities.

‘If you want me removed, kill me,’ Corona said in an

interview with local ABS-CBN television station.

Analysts say that a guilty verdict would be a boon for the

president whose popularity remains high more than a year since

he took office but who has struggled to draw in foreign

investment and carry out major reforms.

‘I doubt Aquino’s reputation will be impacted much if

Corona’s impeachment trial does not end in a conviction,’ Scott

Harrison, managing director of security consultancy Pacific

Strategies and Assessments, said.

‘(But) if Corona is convicted, it will send a powerful

message that Aquino is intent on weeding out corruption in

government and that should resonate well with the public.’

The downside for Aquino’s government is that the trial could

last as long as six months.

DISTRACTION

The government plans to spend about 142 billion pesos ($3.23

billion) this year, mostly on infrastructure projects, to

stimulate growth after weak spending dampened overall economic

output last year.

‘I am more worried the trial will distract government’s

focus, efforts and initiatives on the economic side,’ said an

analyst at a foreign bank in Manila who declined to be

identified.

While Manila has slowly reduced its overall debt load via

innovative debt schemes, it has yet to gain major victories in

its pursuit of big tax evaders and in improving tax collection.

According to Treasury data, the government lowered its debt

load to around 52 percent of GDP in 2010 from more than 70

percent in 2004, earning an upgrade from Fitch Ratings to one

notch below investment grade. Moody’s last year raised its

rating to align with Standard Poor’s at two rungs below.

In December, SP revised its rating outlook for the

Philippines to positive from stable, noting that the country

needs to achieve sustainable gains in raising revenue to merit

an upgrade.

Sixteen votes from the 24-member Senate, sitting as judges

in the trial, are needed to remove Corona from office, a

decision that would permanently bar him from public office.

Aquino can already count on 14 votes against Corona.

‘It’s already a foregone conclusion that very likely he will

win and Corona will be convicted,’ said Benito Lim, political

science professor at the Jesuit-run Ateneo de Manila University.

‘If he does not, that’s a tragedy.’

($1 = 44 Philippine pesos)

(Additional reporting by Rosemarie Francisco; Editing by

Nick Macfie)

(Reporting By Manuel Mogato)

Keywords: PHILIPPINES IMPEACHMENT/

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By Manolo Serapio Jr

SINGAPORE, Jan 16 (Reuters) – Iron ore prices may edge

lower this week as buyers in top importer China skip the spot

market with activity winding down ahead of the Lunar New Year

next week.

‘Many steel mills have already finished restocking, so

there’ll probably be almost no deals this week and prices will

be stable to slightly weaker,’ said an iron ore trader in the

port city of Rizhao in China’s eastern Shandong province.

Offer prices for imported cargo in China were unchanged on

Monday, said Chinese consultancy Umetal.

Most traders are also unlikely to sell cargoes this week,

and opt to wait until the Chinese return after the week-long

holiday that starts Jan. 23.

‘We still have 60,000 tonnes of high-grade iron ore fines

and we intend to sell after the holiday because people are

expecting prices to increase then,’ the trader said.

Iron ore with 62 percent iron content was

steady at $142.20 a tonne, cost and freight delivered to China,

on Friday, according to the Steel Index, ending last week 1.6

percent higher.

‘Demand is currently limited, with buying activity in China

slow ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. Mills were said to

already be in festive mode,’ the Steel Index said in a note.

Also restraining interest in iron ore is steady steel

prices, reflecting slow demand in China.

But traders and analysts expect steel prices to pick up over

the next six months on hopes Beijing would ease monetary policy

to support economic growth.

The most-active May rebar contract on the Shanghai Futures

Exchange was little changed at 4,227 yuan a tonne by the

midday break, with volume traded at a lean 159,876 lots.

Slack Chinese demand has offset the impact of supply

disruptions in top iron ore exporters Australia and Brazil last

week.

Vale said the heavy rains that prompted it to cut

production in Brazil and declare force majeure on shipments will

have minimal effect on global iron ore supply and prices.

CSN, Brazil’s second-largest iron ore exporter

after Vale, said on Friday it may halt shipments because the

rainy weather hampered its mining operations.

Australia’s Port Hedland, one of the world’s largest export

terminals for iron ore, reopened on Friday after being shut

ahead of a tropical cyclone that has since been downgraded to a

storm.

China on Monday launched its first physical iron ore trading

platform in a further move to strengthen its pricing power over

the sector dominated by foreign miners.

China’s major steel mills — Baosteel, Hebei Steel, Wuhan

Steel, Shougang and Angang — as well as large iron ore traders

including China Minmetals and Sinosteel have already agreed to

become sponsor members of the online platform provided by the

China Beijing International Mining Exchange.

The exchange, which was earlier eyeing to launch the

platform in December, set it up along with the China Iron and

Steel Association and the China Chamber of Commerce of Metals

Minerals and Chemicals Importers and Exporters.

So far, none of the big foreign iron ore suppliers have

joined, officials said.

Shanghai rebar futures and iron ore indexes at 0347 GMT

Contract Last Change Pct Change

SHANGHAI REBAR* 4226 -3.00 -0.07

PLATTS 62 PCT INDEX 141.5 -1.00 -0.70

THE STEEL INDEX 62 PCT INDEX 142.2 0.00 0.00

METAL BULLETIN INDEX 141.43 -0.79 -0.56

*In yuan/tonne

Index in dollars/tonne, show close for the previous trading day

(Editing by Himani Sarkar)

Keywords: MARKETS IRONORE

(manolo.serapio@thomsonreuters.com)(+65 6870 3884)(Reuters Messaging: manolo.serapio.reuters.com@reuters.net)

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FRANKFURT, Jan 15 (Reuters) – Europe is the biggest threat to the global economy, JP Morgan’s chief executive Jamie Dimon told German newspaper Die Welt in its Sunday edition.

‘I thought Europe would muddle through. I still believe that,’ Dimon is quoted as telling the paper.

The U.S. executive said he now thought there was a chance of over 60 percent that Europe could make it, and no longer a 90 percent chance, as he had previously believed.

‘We urgently need a solution. The longer the problem drags on, the less likely it is we get off lightly,’ he told the paper.

‘The longer the crisis drags on, the more intense the pressure from markets will get,’ Dimon said.

Dimon still thinks it is unlikely that the euro will break up completely but no longer rules out a Greek exit from the common currency.

‘It could be that some countries like Greece, contrary to rational reason, opt out. This would be bad, but manageable,’ Dimon said.

To solve the crisis Euro zone countries need to implement credible austerity measures and the European Central Bank (ECB) needs to pledge liquidity support for countries like Spain and Italy indefinitely, Dimon said.

The fact that the ECB has pledged liquidity support for only a limited period of time is prolonging insecurity in the markets, Dimon said.

Insecurity on the markets is worse than in the aftermath of the Lehman crisis, Dimon told the paper.

In the worst case scenario JP Morgan could see losses of about $5 billion on its $16-billion Southern Europe portfolio, Dimon said, adding the bank would not withdraw from the region.

However, the crisis forced the bank to re-evaluate all contracts with European partners. Because all banks and insurers are doing the same thing this could result in a ‘snowball’ effect, he said.

(Reporting By Edward Taylor; Editing by Greg Mahlich) Keywords: EUROZONE/JPMORGAN

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By Felix Onuah and Camillus Eboh

ABUJA, Jan 15 (Reuters) – Nigerian labour unions said they would resume nationwide strikes on Monday, crippling the second largest economy in Africa, after failing to reach a compromise with the government over scrapped fuel subsidies.

However, the main oil union said it would maintain the output of Africa’s No. 1 crude producer, not joining walkouts for the time being, and the government said more talks would be held on Sunday despite the unsuccessful round the day before.

‘There will be further negotiations today. The government is still open for dialogue. Further consultations will carry on today and by the evening something definite will have to come out,’ presidential spokesman Reuben Abati told Reuters.

Tens of thousands took to the streets for strikes over five successive days last week in protest against the sudden removal of a fuel subsidy on Jan. 1 that more than doubled the pump price of petrol to 150 naira ($0.93) per litre from 65 naira.

‘We are suffering,’ shouted Paul Edem, after queueing for 12 hours to buy petrol at the new higher price in Lagos, Nigeria’s largest city. The only alternative to queueing is to buy at three times the new price from touts selling from jerry cans.

‘We are stocking up as they say the strike will resume tomorrow,’ said Zainab Aruna, a housewife at Sura market nearby. ‘Government should reinstate the subsidy so that the protests will end,’ she added to a chorus of approval from bystanders.

The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress said in a statement: ‘The indefinite strikes, rallies and protests continue nationwide from Monday,’ but added that they were ready for more talks without conditions.

However, in a possible move to coax concessions from the government, NLC President Abdulwaheed Omar said PENGASSAN, the oil workers union, ‘will not shut down oil production, as earlier planned for Sunday’.

Previously, workers in Nigeria’s 2 million barrel-per-day oil industry, which accounts for 8 percent of U.S. oil imports and is an important source of energy supply in Europe and Asia, said they would cut output if talks broke down, intensifying pressure on President Goodluck Jonathan and his team.

Crude exports account for more than 90 percent of Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and 80 percent of government revenues.

Unions said they wanted the government to immediately bring the price back down to 65 naira, at which point they would cancel strikes and protests and negotiations could continue.

The government has been quiet on the details of negotiations, but slashing the pump price to 65 naira without any guarantee of subsidies being removed in the future would be a major climbdown.

Unions said the government appeared willing to reduce the petrol price but not to return it to old levels.

Workers had suspended strike action for the weekend because of Saturday’s talks and to allow protesters to rest. Unions intend to have internal strategy meetings on Sunday.

Several people died in clashes with police last week and 600 were treated for injuries, according to the International Red Cross.

CRISIS PUSHES UP OIL PRICES

Global oil prices were boosted by Nigeria supply fears late last week and a serious production outage would push them sharply higher, according to traders and analysts.

‘All PENGASSAN branches and members at all the production platforms … (will) execute immediately the systematic shutdown of oil production should the negotiation with the government break down,’ the main oil union said.

Industry officials doubt unions can stop crude oil exports completely because production is largely automated and Nigeria has crude stored in reserves, but any outage could still have a significant dampening impact on the economy.

Even with oil output unaffected, the strikes are costing Nigeria around $600 million a day, Central Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi told Reuters.

The strikes have prevented tankers from delivering supplies to Nigeria, which, despite its oil riches, imports most of its refined petroleum products.

Many economists have called the subsidies corrupt and wasteful, with billions of dollars of state funds going into the hands of a cartel of fuel importers while giving little benefit to millions of poor Nigerians.

But the Nigerian public, who have witnessed decades of political corruption and worsening public services, view cheaper fuel as their most tangible welfare benefit.

The strikes began with gripes over subsidies but in some areas have become protests at long-term government failures.

Nigeria sells more than $200 million in crude oil a day and holds the world’s seventh largest gas reserves. But infrastructure only provides enough power to support a medium-sized European city, meaning most of the country’s 160 million people live without electricity.

The confrontation is a serious setback for Jonathan, already under fire for failing to quell an increasingly violent Islamist insurgency in the north.

(Additional reporting by Joe Brock in Abuja, James Jukwey, Chijioke Ohuocha and Tim Cocks in Lagos and Mike Oboh in Kano; writing by Joe Brock; editing by Andrew Roche) Keywords: NIGERIA STRIKE/

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FRANKFURT, Jan 15 (Reuters) – Germany should consider leaving the euro if efforts to impose fiscal discipline upon indebted euro zone countries fail, the head of industrial gases firm Linde told German weekly paper Der Spiegel.

‘I fear the willingness of crisis countries to reform themselves is abating if, in the end, the European Central Bank steps in,’ Linde’s chief executive Wolfgang Reitzle was quoted as saying.

‘If we do not succeed in disciplining crisis countries, Germany needs to exit,’ said Reitzle who was previously a board member at carmaker BMW and head of Jaguar and Land Rover.

Asking Germans to pay more than 50 percent taxes to help fund other euro zone countries will erode the will of the German electorate to support rescue measures, Reitzle said.

Although this scenario is not desirable, he felt that German industry would survive working in a new currency.

‘Of course it would lead the new currency – Deutschmark, North-euro or whatever it is called – to appreciate in value. But it would be by a lesser amount than feared,’ Reitzle said.

‘Although this would lead to higher unemployment in Germany because exports would take a hit, pressure would increase to become more competitive.’

Reitzle said the euro zone is unlikely to break up completely but Greece is not in a position to service its debt.

‘The country is not in a position to restructure itself in such a way that it can remain in the currency union,’ Reitzle said.

‘In the medium term Greece needs to exit. And the writedowns on Greek debt will not be between 50 to 70 percent, but in the end will be written down by 100 percent,’ Reitzle said.

So long as Greece remains in the euro it needs to be supported. ‘All in all this is a 500 billion-euro problem,’ Reitzle said.

Structural reforms need to continue elsewhere in places like Italy too, Reitzle said.

The year of destiny for the euro is not 2012, but three to four years down the line, Reitzle said.

Upon being asked whether Linde has a plan B to cope with a complete break-up of the euro zone, Reitzle said ‘no’.

‘Even if we had a recession for years in Europe, it would only impact 30 percent of our revenues,’ he added.

(Reporting By Edward Taylor; Editing by Greg Mahlich) Keywords: EUROZONE/LINDE

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This week looked good for the euro as Forex traders felt a little less concerned about the situation in Europe, but then Standard Poor’s came in and spoiled traders’ mood.

The euro looked good for the most part of the week. Meetings of European leaders and officials of the International Monetary Fund spurred optimism that was further supported by falling yields on European bonds. The European Central Bank provided a major boost for the shared 17-nation currency refusing to cut interest rates and speaking about stabilization of the European economy.

Pragmatic traders weren’t caught by the general optimism and were wondering when the happiness will end. As it turned out, they hadn’t to wait long as SP spoiled what looked to be a good week for euro bulls. Credit rating cuts were anticipated for some time, but they hit the market hard anyway.

The euro was rallying against the pound this week, but the Friday move after the SP rating cuts greatly reduced gains. Gains versus the dollar and the yen were lower and were completely erased by the Friday drop.

EUR/USD ended the week at 1.2673, down from the opening rate of 1.2693, while during the week it climbed to 1.2877. EUR/JPY advanced from 97.62 to 98.80, but retreated to 97.53 by the end of the week. EUR/GBP gained from 0.8227 to 0.8270, while the weekly high was 0.8374.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Euro,
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Article source: http://www.topforexnews.com/2012/01/14/euros-rally-this-week-takes-hit-from-standard-poors/

BEIJING, Jan 15 (Reuters) – China critised U.S. sanctions on a Chinese company selling refined petroleum products to Iran, calling Washington’s punishment an unreasonable step beyond international sanctions on Tehran’s nuclear programme.

On Thursday, the Obama administration invoked U.S. law to sanction China’s state-run Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp, which it said was Iran’s largest supplier of refined petroleum products.

‘Imposing sanctions on a Chinese company based on a domestic (U.S.) law is totally unreasonable, and does not conform to the spirit or content of U.N. Security Council resolutions about the Iran nuclear issue,’ the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said in a statement issued on the ministry’s website (www.mfa.gov.cn) late on Saturday.

‘China expresses its strong dissatisfaction and adamant opposition,’ said Liu.

The Obama administration said its sanctions against the Chinese company and two other firms are part of a broadening effort to target Iran’s energy sector and press Tehran to curb its nuclear ambitions, which Western governments say appear aimed at developing the means to make atomic weapons.

Iran says its nuclear activities are legitimate and entirely for peaceful ends.

The U.S. sanctions threat is a worry for China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, followed by India and Japan. Only Saudi Arabia and Angola sell more crude than Iran to China.

As a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, China can veto resolutions mandating sanctions. But Beijing has voted for them, while working to ensure its energy ties are not threatened.

China has, however, also long criticised the United States and EU for imposing separate, unilateral sanctions on Iran and said they should take no steps reaching beyond the U.N. resolutions.

‘Like many other countries, China and Iran maintain normal energy and trade and economic cooperation,’ said the foreign ministry spokesman Liu.

Analysts have said the U.S. move was largely symbolic, given that China’s Zhuhai Zhenrong was unlikely to have much U.S. business, but that it sent a warning to Beijing and its state-run oil giants such as China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), China Petroleum and Chemical Corp (Sinopec Corp) and China National Offshore Oil Corp. .

These companies have invested billions of dollars in the U.S. energy sector, and are much more exposed to the impact of potential sanctions.

(Reporting by Chris Buckley, Editing by Jonathan Thatcher) Keywords: CHINA USA/IRAN

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SEOUL, Jan 15 (Reuters) – Three people were killed and eight others are missing after a cargo ship carrying petroleum exploded in waters off South Korea’s western port city of Incheon on Sunday, the coast guard said.

A Korea Coast Guard spokesman said the explosion of the 4,191-tonne freight ship, with 16 crewmen — 11 Koreans and 5 Myanmarese — on board, happened on Sunday morning in waters north of Jawol Island near Incheon. Five of them were rescued.

Two of the three dead crewmen were Myanmarese, the spokesman said. The cause of the explosion was not known immediately.

The ship was heading south to return to Daesan, another port on the west coast, after unloading gasoline at the Incheon port.

The coast guard and the Navy are searching for the missing sailors.

(Reporting by Sung-won Shim, Editing by Jonathan Thatcher) Keywords: KOREA SHIP/EXPLOSION

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SEOUL, Jan 15 (Reuters) – Following are South Korea’s revised foreign trade figures for December 2011, released by the Korea Customs Service on Sunday:

revised *provisional

Balance ($ billion) +3.4 +4.0

Exports ($ billion) 48.9 49.7

(pct growth vs yr ago) +10.8 +12.5

Imports ($ billion) 45.5 45.7

(pct growth vs yr ago) +13.6 +14.0

* Provisional data was released by the Ministry of Knowledge Economy on Jan. 1, 2012.

(Reporting by Yoo Choonsik, Editing by Jonathan Thatcher) Keywords: KOREA ECONOMY/TRADE

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