Archive for June, 2011

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WHAT: June CPI, May trade data

WHEN: July 1, 0200 GMT

REUTERS FORECASTS:

June CPI (pct change)

MEDIAN RANGE MAY FORECASTERS

Headline CPI y/y 5.40 5.10-6.30 5.98 16

Core CPI y/y 4.70 4.44-4.89 4.64 15

Headline CPI m/m 0.38 0.19-0.77 0.12 13

May trade (pct change)

MEDIAN RANGE APRIL FORECASTERS

Exports y/y 32.00 25.10-40.00 37.28 13

Imports y/y 42.20 30.50-61.10 32.54 13

Trade surplus 2.30 0.52-3.90 1.63 13

(in bln of dlrs)

FACTORS TO WATCH:

Indonesia’s annual inflation rate is seen falling to a 12-month low of 5.4

percent in June, though up 0.38 percent on a monthly basis as food prices have

steadily increased, according to 16 analysts polled by Reuters. In May, the

year-on-year rate was 5.98 percent.

The country’s statistics bureau estimated June annual inflation to be

slightly above 5 percent, after rising around 0.1 percent from the previous

month.

Core inflation — which excludes administered prices and volatile foods —

is also seen to have slightly picked up in June to 4.7 percent year-on-year due

to higher vacation and transport prices amid school holidays and higher gold

prices.

However, analysts expect Indonesia’s central bank to leave rates on hold at

6.75 percent for the fifth consecutive month as it has let the rupiah currency strengthen to help reducing imported inflation.

Most analysts believe the central bank will raise rates once more this year

by 25 basis points to 7 percent as it aims to guard against inflation. Still,

Bank Indonesia expects inflation easing to just above 5 percent by year-end and

core inflation staying below 5 percent if the government does not change its

policy on subsidised fuels.

The Indonesian government said on Tuesday it might limit consumption of

subsidised fuels this year, without giving details, because spending on

subsidies could swell the budget deficit, which would add inflationary

pressures.

Cooler inflation has helped boost investor confidence after Bank Indonesia

surprisingly hiked rates by 25 basis points in February. Foreigners bought a net

10 trillion rupiah ($1.16 billion) of Indonesian government bonds in June, more

than double their net purchases in May.

Bank Indonesia was seen as less hawkish in its latest statement, on June 1,

after it did not reiterate previous statements to remain in a tightening stance

and that there was room for further rate adjustments to manage inflationary

pressures, though signalling further macroprudential policies to manage

liquidity.

MARKET IMPACT:

Higher-than-expected inflation may lead investors to sell Indonesian stocks

and bonds, though many have become confident the central bank remains vigilant

on dampening inflation.

Weaker inflation will cheer investors, but may have little market impact as

it is likely priced in already. It would strengthen analyst consensus that Bank

Indonesia would hold rates when it meets on July 12.

Investors have returned to Indonesia after a January sell-off. The country’s

stock index touched a record high on May 20 and has gained more than 4

percent so far this year, after rising 46 percent in 2010. The benchmark 10-year

government bond yield has fallen to 7.57 percent after rising to 9.5

percent early this year.

Indonesia’s statistics bureau website: www.bps.go.id

Following are the findings of the June 27 to 29 poll.

The consumer price index, imports and exports reflect percentage changes.

The trade surplus is in billions of dollars.

CPI

m/m y/y core y/y

Action Economics 0.20 5.10 4.50

ANZ 0.73 5.73 4.72

Bank Danamon 0.52 5.51 4.72

Bahana Securities 0.42 5.40 4.67

Barclays – 5.50 4.70

BII 0.35 5.33 4.61

Capital Economics 0.77 5.77 4.89

CIMB Niaga 0.38 5.28 4.69

Credit Suisse – 5.30 4.70

Danareksa 0.36 5.34 –

IFR 0.30 5.30 4.50

Mandiri Sekuritas 0.43 5.40 4.67

OCBC Bank – 6.10 4.80

OSK-DMG 0.20 6.30 4.70

Samuel Sekuritas 0.19 5.17 4.44

Standard Chartered 0.40 5.40 4.70

Exports y/y Imports y/y Trade surplus

(bln dlrs)

Action Economics 32.00 41.50 2.30

Bank Danamon 25.10 42.20 1.59

Bahana Securities 34.00 32.00 3.74

BII 25.52 41.28 1.74

Capital Economics 38.80 46.60 2.88

CIMB Niaga 34.10 30.50 3.90

Credit Suisse 40.00 50.00 2.70

Danareksa 30.93 45.43 2.01

IFR 32.70 45.30 2.30

Mandiri Sekuritas 30.10 46.70 1.77

OCBC Bank 27.80 36.30 2.50

Samuel Sekuritas 39.50 61.10 0.52

Standard Chartered 27.30 39.10 2.23

($1 = 8,617 rupiah)

(Reporting by Aditya Suharmoko; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

Keywords: INDONESIA INFLATION/PREVIEW

(aditya.suharmoko@thomsonreuters.com)(+62 21 384 6364 ext 911)(Reuters Messaging: aditya.suharmoko.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)

COPYRIGHT

Copyright Thomson Reuters 2011. All rights reserved.

The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.

Article source: http://www.xe.com/news/2011/06/30/1998633.htm?utm_source=RSS&utm_medium=TL&utm_content=NOGEO&utm_campaign=News_RSS_Art3

By Silke Koltrowitz

ZURICH, June 30 (Reuters) – Barry Callebaut, the world’s largest maker of chocolate products, confirmed its midterm targets on Thursday after sales volumes rose 7.3 percent during the first nine months of its fiscal year 2010/11.

The company, which makes chocolates for groups such as Nestle and Hershey, is benefit ting from a recovery in worldwide chocolate consumption and a trend towards outsourcing chocolate production.

Sales were up 12.5 percent in local currencies until the end of May driven also by higher raw material prices. They only rose 1.6 percent to 4 billion Swiss francs in francs as the strong Swiss currency took its toll, the company said in a statement.

Emerging markets contributed particularly strongly with a volume growth of 10.2 percent, the group said. Earlier this week, the group announced an outsourcing agreement in Mexico.

It also signed an important global supply agreement with Kraft Foods last year and recently expanded its contract with Hershey.

Barry Callebaut said it expected the global chocolate market to grow above 2 percent despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

The end of the crisis in the Ivory Coast had allowed cocoa prices to stabilise at high levels, the group said.

‘The company assumes that raw material prices — especially cocoa, sugar and milk powder — will remain volatile and at high levels,’ it said, adding that it was able to pass on these price changes to its customers.

U.S. cocoa futures have come off a 32-year peak hit in early March because of a post-election conflict in Ivory Coast, the world’s top producer.

The group, which also makes chocolate coatings and cocoa powders, targets on average 6-8 percent volume growth and earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) growth in local currencies at least in line with volume growth through 2012/13.

(Editing by Hans-Juergen Peters) Keywords: BARRYCALLEBAUT/

(Zurich Newsroom +41 58 306 7336, fax +41 44 251 0476, zurich.newsroom@news.reuters.com)

COPYRIGHT

Copyright Thomson Reuters 2011. All rights reserved.

The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.

Article source: http://www.xe.com/news/2011/06/30/1998649.htm?utm_source=RSS&utm_medium=TL&utm_content=NOGEO&utm_campaign=News_RSS_Art2

This diary is updated every weekday and new listings or amendments are

marked *.

Reuters will not always produce a news item on each event listed.

===============================================================================

UPCOMING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

DATE—–GMT/LOCAL—–INDICATOR————-PERIOD—–FORECAST———PRIOR

01/07 0800/1000 central state budget Jan-June N/F 1.57 bln euro

08/07 0700/0900 industrial output May N/A +8.3 pct

08/07 0700/0900 foreign trade balance May N/A +12.0 mln euro

12/07 0700/0900 headline inflation June N/A +0.3,+4.0 pct

12/07 0700/0900 core inflation June N/A +0.4,+2.6 pct

12/07 0700/0900 new inudstrial orders May N/F 0.0,+9.3 pct

14/07 0700/0900 EU-norm inflation June N/A +0.3,+4.3 pct

27/07 0800/1000 current account May N/F -245.0 mln euro

09/08 0700/0900 industrial output June N/A n/a pct

09/08 0700/0900 foreign trade balance June N/A n/a mln euro

12/08 0700/0900 headline inflation July N/A n/a pct

12/08 0700/0900 core inflation July N/A n/a pct

12/08 0700/0900 new industrial orders June N/F n/a pct

16/08 0700/0900 GDP growth flash estimate Q2/11 N/A +1.0,+3.5 pct

17/08 0700/0900 EU-norm inflation July N/A n/a pct

06/09 0700/0900 GDP growth final data Q2/11 N/A +1.0,+3.5 pct

06/09 0700/0900 real average wage Q2/11 N/F -0.4,+2.9 pct

===============================================================================

THURSDAY, June 30

BRATISLAVA – Prime Minister Iveta Radicova and ministers to answer deputies’

queries during the ‘question hour’.

FRIDAY, July 1

BRATISLAVA – The finance ministry to publish January-June central state

budget data.

BRATISLAVA – The central bank Governor and the European Central Bank

Governing Council member Jozef Makuch to address the parliament.

TUESDAY, July 5

National holiday, banks and financial markets closed.

WEDNESDAY, July 6

BRATISLAVA – The government to hold its regular meeting.

FRIDAY, July 8

BRATISLAVA – The Statistics Office to publish May industrial output data.

BRATISLAVA – The Statistics Office to publish May foreign trade data.

MONDAY, July 11

BRATISLAVA – The finance ministry’s Debt and Liquidity Management Agency

(ARDAL) to auction 364-day treasury bills due July 2012.

TUESDAY, July 12

BRATISLAVA – The Statistics Office to publish June headline and core

inflation data.

BRATISLAVA – The Statistics Office to publish May new industrial orders.

THURSDAY, July 14

BRATISLAVA – The Statistics Office to publish June EU-norm inflation data.

WEDNESDAY, July 27

BRATISLAVA – The central bank to publish preliminary May current account

data, revised April.

MONDAY, Aug 1

BRATISLAVA – The finance ministry to publish January-July central state

budget data.

TUESDAY, Aug 9

BRATISLAVA – The Statistics Office to publish industrial output and foreign

trade balance data for June.

FRIDAY, Aug 12

BRATISLAVA – The Statistics Office to publish headline and core inflation

data for July.

BRATISLAVA – The Statistics Office to publish June new industrial orders

data.

TUESDAY, Aug 16

BRATISLAVA – The Statistics Office to publish the gross domestic product

(GDP) growth flash estimate for the second quarter.

WEDNESDAY, Aug 17

BRATISLAVA – The Statistics Office to publish July EU-norm inflation data.

===============================================================================

The Slovak Labour Office releases monthly unemployment figures around the 20th

of each month.

===============================================================================

TREASURY BONDS: The following is a schedule of treasury bond and treasury

bill auctions for 2011:

AUCTION DATE MATURITY COUPON MATURITY DATE

July 17 3-year zero-coupon April 7, 2014

Aug 22 9-year 4.0 percent April 27, 2020

Sept 5 2-year floating-coupon Oct 14, 2013

Sept 19 TO BE DECIDED

Oct 3 15-year 4.5 percent May 10, 2026

Oct 17 3-year zero-coupon April 7, 2014

Oct 31 5-year 3.5 percent Feb 24, 2016

Nov 14 TO BE DECIDED

Nov 28 3-year zero-coupon April 7, 2014

Dec 12 14-year 4.35 percent Oct 14, 2025

==============================================================================

NOTE:

- The debt agency will open two new issues next year.

- Three-year zero coupon state bonds — issue size of 1.5 billion euro.

- Seven or ten-year bonds, carrying a fix-rate, issue size 3.0 billion euro.

- ARDAL has yet to set the fixed-coupon rate for the bonds as well as its

maturity date.

===========================================================================

TREASURY BILLS:

- The debt agency will auction two new treasury bills, both with an initial

maturity of 364-days and both of total nominal value of 2.0 billion euros.

- The first t-bill line will be placed on January 19. The second line will be

open on July 13.

===========================================================================

- Auction dates are binding, however, in case of any contingencies the Debt and

Liquidity Management Agency reserves the right of a change that will be

announced early in advance.

Keywords: SLOVAKIA DIARY/

COPYRIGHT

Copyright Thomson Reuters 2011. All rights reserved.

The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.

Article source: http://www.xe.com/news/2011/06/30/1998653.htm?utm_source=RSS&utm_medium=TL&utm_content=NOGEO&utm_campaign=News_RSS_Art1

The US dollar fell after the Greek lawmakers supported the proposition of Prime Minister George Papandreou about budget cuts and asset sales, reducing nervousness on markets and erasing attractiveness of the US currency as a safe haven.

155 lawmakers voted for the Prime Minister’s package of budget cuts and asset sales, while 138 voted against this proposition. Parliament will vote tomorrow for implementing of the austerity plan. The positive outcome of today’s vote reinforced the outlook that the European Central Bank will boost its lending rates before the Federal Reserve.

The Dollar Index, tracking the greenback versus the currencies of the six major trading partners of the US, fell 0.5 percent to 74.668. The Standard Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.7 percent. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of commodities rose 1 percent.

EUR/USD climbed from 1.4370 to 1.4424 as of GMT 19:29 today after falling earlier to 1.4329. GBP/USD advanced from 1.6000 to 1.6053, while USD/JPY slumped from 81.11 to 80.55 before trading at 80.89.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the US Dollar,
feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Earlier News About the US Dollar:

• US Dollar Rallies Ahead of Vote in Greek Parliament (2011-06-27)
• US Dollar Rises vs. Euro on Greece, Falls vs. Yen on GDP (2011-06-24)
• Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, Dollar Rises vs. Euro on Greece (2011-06-22)
• US Dollar Falls as Traders Expect Fed Would Maintain Stimulus (2011-06-21)
• Improving Economy Pushes Dollar Down (2011-06-14)

This entry was posted on TopForexNews
on Wednesday, June 29th, 2011 at 7:29 pm and is filed under US Dollar.
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Article source: http://www.topforexnews.com/2011/06/29/us-dollar-loses-after-greek-vote/

The Canadian dollar posted a big jump against most of its major counterparts today as the nation’s inflation accelerated much more than was forecast and commodities, including crude oil, advanced.

The Canadian Consumer Price Index grew 0.7 percent in May from April, compared to the median forecast of 0.2 percent growth. The April increase was 0.3 percent. As for negative fundamentals, the report on Canada’s gross domestic product is expected to show tomorrow a drop by 0.1 percent in April.

August futures for crude oil delivery jumped as much as 3.2 percent to $95.84 per barrel in New York, the highest price since June 15, before trading at $95.10, posting the 2.4 percent gain. The positive fundamentals made investors to increase their bets on an interest rates hike by Canada’s central bank. The Canadian dollar trimmed its monthly decline to only 0.1 percent.

USD/CAD sank from 0.9810 to 0.9673 today as of 22:59 GMT, erasing gains of the previous week. EUR/CAD dropped from 1.4099 to 1.3945 before trading at 1.4005. CAD/JPY climbed from 82.63 to 83.37.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Canadian Dollar,
feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

Earlier News About the Canadian Dollar:

• Canadian Dollar Rebounds vs. Greenback on Stocks Oil (2011-06-28)
• Canadian Dollar Flat After Decline, Gains vs. US Dollar (2011-06-24)
• Canada’s Dollar Fluctuates After Carney Statement (2011-06-23)
• Loonie Gains vs. Greenback on Fundamentals, Falls vs. Euro (2011-06-21)
• US Europe Drain Loonie’s Strength (2011-06-16)

This entry was posted on TopForexNews
on Wednesday, June 29th, 2011 at 10:59 pm and is filed under Canadian Dollar.
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Article source: http://www.topforexnews.com/2011/06/29/canadas-currency-erases-losses-in-big-jump/

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